The Seismogenic Potential of the Southernmost Ryukyu Subduction Zone as Revealed by Historical Earthquakes and Slow Slip events

The southernmost Ryukyu subduction zone may have a geodetically inferred M w 7.5 to 8.7 megathrust earthquake in shallow locked region, the fault. Paleoseismological evidence of historical earthquakes available from last 417 years indicates that only 1920 7.7 occurred within this magnitude range, near downdip end As slow slip events seismogenic trigger large earthquake, we investigate how first observed 2005, 2009, and 2015 initiated fault interface affect occurrence megathrust. We establish possible cycles on using constraints magnitude-frequency relation based local earthquakes. This analysis shows b value 1.2 for magnitudes greater than 7.0, which is higher empirical 1.0 value. recurrence an event up longer previously thought if follow relation. Then, quantify influence triggering potential by calculating static stress increase. find perturbations caused three are generally consistent with values triggered interplate several zones. However, has not yet been after sequence events. If rupture fault, cycle very likely early stage. true occur toward there no at years, as 2011 9.0 Tohoku earthquake. Thus, zone.